000 AXNT20 KNHC 030525 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT NOV 03 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W S OF 15N MOVING W 5-10 KT. BROAD AREA OF SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA FROM 4N-13N BETWEEN 30W-37W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 42W-47W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N11W 6N16W 9N27W 7N40W 7N60W. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90/120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 8W-11W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE FROM 10N25W TO 13N31W AND FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 4W WITH CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION WITHIN 90/120 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS E OF 21W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF 3N FROM 14W-20W WITH CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 21W-30W. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE FAR N ATLC JUST E OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DRAPES A FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF THE REMNANTS OF NOEL INTO THE W ATLC THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS ALONG 25N80W...THE N COAST OF CUBA AND THE YUCATAN TO 21N91W. THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DOMINATED BY NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALSO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE GULF ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE W ATLC WHICH IS LIMITING ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE DUE DURING THE FIRST OF THE WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE UPPER HIGH CENTERED IN THE AREA BETWEEN CUBA...HAITI...AND JAMAICA AND THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NE OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN AND SW TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS E CUBA NEAR 21N76W TO A NEW DEVELOPED 1007 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 16N80W TO THE PANAMA/COSTA RICA BORDER. THE MID LEVEL LOW IS TO THE SW OF THE SURFACE LOW NEAR 14N81W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE COUPLED WITH THE MID LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES ARE GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A BROAD AREA FROM 10N-21N BETWEEN 71W-83W. MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING IN SOME WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN N OF 13N E OF 69W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS PUSHED THE REMNANTS OF NOEL N OF THE REGION LEAVING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR IN ITS WAKE COVERING THE W ATLC W OF A LINE FROM BERMUDA SSW TO CUBA NEAR 21N77W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE N ATLC JUST E OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DRAPES A FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF THE REMNANTS OF NOEL INTO THE W ATLC NEAR 32N77W ACROSS GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND NEAR 27N78W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 25N80W. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE FAR W ATLC WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. THE UPPER HIGH IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS NE THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO BEYOND 32N62W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 22N73W TO BEYOND 32N65W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 30N46W ALONG 20N52W TO AN UPPER LOW IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N56W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 48W-57W. BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE NE/CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE AZORES EXTENDS A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N28W TO 29N32W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY FRONT SW TO 25N50W. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE N/CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1036 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE REGION. THIS STRONG SURFACE RIDGE COUPLED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF NOEL ARE PRODUCING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE W/CENTRAL ATLC GENERATING STRONG SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA W OF 50W. AN E/W UPPER RIDGE IS IN THE TROPICS EXTENDS ALONG 9N/10N TO 47W ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 46W. $$ WALLACE