000 AXNT20 KNHC 060559 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST TUE NOV 06 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG 45W SOUTH OF 19N...MOVING W NEAR 10 KT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. A RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWED THAT A LOW PRES CIRCULATION STILL EXISTS ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 13W...THOUGH IT IS NOT AS WELL DEFINED AS IT WAS YESTERDAY. WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE CIRCULATION ARE MOSTLY LESS THAN 15 KT. DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE IS LIMITED...WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS ENTERING THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 63W...MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS NOT WELL DEFINED ANYMORE AND MAY NEED TO BE DROPPED FROM THE MAP SOON. THE UPPER LOW THE WAVE WAS GETTING SUPPORT FROM HAS STALLED E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND NWP GUIDANCE HAS THE UPPER LOW MOVING E INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE ARE ISOLATED TSTMS JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 14N-20 BUT THIS ACTIVITY IS MORE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N13W 7N32W 10N44W 7N59W. ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 25W-35W. SCATTERED MODERATE IS FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 35W-44W. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... PLEASANT WEATHER CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF TONIGHT WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION NOTED. IN FACT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE NOTED N OF 25N WITH ONLY A FEW LOW CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH OF 25N. A 1020 MB HIGH IS LOCATED JUST S OF PENSACOLA THAT HAS MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ROTATING AROUND IT...EXCEPT A LITTLE STRONGER NE WINDS NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN AS A NEW COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS TUE AFTERNOON. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. FAIRLY UNIFORM UPPER NW FLOW IS OVER THE GULF TONIGHT BETWEEN A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN UNITED STATES AND RIDGING OVER MEXICO. CARIBBEAN SEA... A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE COAST NE NICARAGUA TO THE ERN TIP OF CUBA...THEN CONTINUES ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND THE ATLC. THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS...PARTICULARLY OVER NE HONDURAS AND ADJACENT WATERS S OF 19N BETWEEN 79W-85W. THIS FRONT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH MIDWEEK. AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED NELY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. TYPICAL ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ALSO NOTED JUST OFF THE COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. ALOFT...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE W AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHILE AN UPPER LOW IS JUST E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IN THE TROPICAL ATLC. NLY FLOW AND DRY AIR BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES IS KEEPING THE E CARIBBEAN MOSTLY TRANQUIL. MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS PERSIST IN THE NW PORTION THROUGH WED WHILE LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF EXTENDS A RIDGE OVER FLORIDA...THE W ATLC AND THE NW/CENTRAL BAHAMAS. MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS AND COOL/DRY WEATHER PREVAILS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM. AHEAD OF THIS RIDGE...THERE IS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 32N59W...THEN CONTINUES TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A ROUGHLY 100 NM WIDE BAND OF LOW AND MID CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS NE WINDS REMAIN NEAR 20 KT WITHIN 180NM BEHIND THE FRONT. SCATTERED COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE FOUND BEHIND THE FRONT...EXCEPT FOR CLEAR SKIES JUST OFF NE FLORIDA. WHILE NOEL IS MOSTLY A THING OF THE PAST...SOME OF THE ASSOCIATED LONGER PERIOD NE SWELL ENERGY CONTINUES TO REGISTER AT THE BUOYS IN THE WRN ATLC. THIS IS MIXING WITH MODERATE ELY SWELLS FROM A RECENT PROLONGED FETCH OF STRONG E WINDS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC. THESE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF FLORIDA TUE NIGHT AND WED...ALLOWING INCREASING N WINDS AND STEEP WIND WAVES TO DEVELOP. THE NEXT ITEM OF INTEREST IS THE OCCLUDED 1000 MB SFC LOW JUST N OF THE AREA NEAR 33N35W...OR ABOUT 540 NM SW OF THE AZORES. THIS SYSTEM IS BEING MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. ASSOCIATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 29N-35N BETWEEN 32W-39W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N25W AND CONTINUES SW TO 24N36W...THEN NW TO 32N49W. THE FRONT IN ADDITION TO A PREFRONTAL TROUGH JUST TO THE S IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS ESPECIALLY N OF 21N BETWEEN 21W-28W. THE TROUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS ALSO GENERATING ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 26N BETWEEN 53W-57W. WEAK SFC RIDGING DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC...EXTENDING S THROUGH THE CANARY ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ALSO NOTED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 31W-40W...ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. $$ WILLIS